The Wine Crisis — Beverage 2050 Projection Model

The Wine Crisis — Beverage 2050 Projection Model

Adjust the sliders to see how different assumptions change the projection. All historical data sourced from OIV, Kirin, WHO, IWSR, UN WPP 2024.

Base Case
Accelerated Decline
Stabilisation
Custom
Wine
Base decline rate (%/yr)-1.4
GLP-1 restaurant effect (extra %/yr)-0.3
Production cost spiral (%/yr)-0.2
Climate viticulture loss by 2050 (%)35
Beer
Base decline rate (%/yr)-0.5
GLP-1 bloating penalty (%/yr)-0.3
Non-alc beer substitution (offset %/yr)+0.1
Spirits
Base decline rate (%/yr)-0.3
GLP-1 + mixer bloating (%/yr)-0.1
India/emerging growth (offset %/yr)+0.3
NoLo
Base growth rate (%/yr)7
Deceleration (by 2050, pts)4
GLP-1 carbonation drag (%/yr)-0.3

GLP-1-induced early satiety and bloating suppress appetite for carbonated drinks; because premium NoLo skews sparkling, this drags on the category. Scales with GLP-1 adoption.

Global Variables
GLP-1 adoption by 2030 (% adults, US)15
Wellness/zebra drinking drag (%/yr, all)-0.2
Religious/cultural non-drinker growth by 2050 (pp)3

Historical data is fixed from sources. Only projection period (2025–2050) changes. Each variable compounds annually.

Population-Consumption Gap (indexed to 1961 = 100)

Four-Category Projection to 2050

Wine 2050
156
-27%
Beer 2050
172
-11%
Spirits 2050
10.9
-7%
NoLo 2050
$81B
+167%
Population 2050
9.7B
+20%